Online Casinos: The Mathematics of Bonuses

Casino players online are aware that these bonuses are available in a variety of casinos. "Free-load" looks attractive, however, are they really useful are they really worth it? Are they profitable for gamblers? This is a question that depends on many different factors. Mathematical calculations can help us answer this question.

Let's begin with the typical bonus when you deposit. You transfer $100 and get another $100. This will be possible after you stake $3000. This is an example of a bonus that you can get on your first deposit. While the amount of a bonus or deposit can vary and so do the stake rate. However, one thing is certain: the bonus amount can be taken out after the wagering requirement has been met. In general, it is impossible to withdraw any funds.

If you are going to be playing at an online casino for a lengthy time and rather insistently, this bonus will aid you, and it could be considered to be free money. If you play slots with 95% pay-outs, a bonus will allow you to make on average extra 2000 $ of stakes ($100/(1-0,95)=$2000), after that the amount of bonus will be over. There are a few pitfalls. In particular If your intention is simply to take a look at the casino without spending too much time in there, or you enjoy roulette or other games that are not permitted under bonus rules, you might be denied access to the bonus. In most casinos you will not be able to withdraw funds or simply return a deposit, when a wager isn't placed on the games that are allowed at the casino. There is a chance to win a bonus when playing roulette or blackjack, but only if you have the required stakes of 3000. If you're lucky enough to win 95% of payouts that you'll lose an average of 3000$ (1-0,95) which is $150. As you see, you do not just lose the bonus, but you also have to take out of your wallet $50. In the case of this, it's better to not accept the bonus. If blackjack or poker will be able to recoup the bonus by earning a profit of 0.5%, it is possible that you'll receive $100-3000*0,005=$85 after you've earned back the bonus.
"Sticky" as well as "phantom" bonuses

More and more popularity in casinos is derived from "sticky" or "phantom" bonuses - similar to lucky chips in real casinos. The amount of the bonus cannot be taken out, it must remain in the account (as if it "has stuck" to it) until it's completely lost, or annulled after the first time you withdraw cash means (disappears as if it were a phantom). On first glance, it might appear that there is no sense in such an offer - you'll never receive any money however this isn't true. It's not worth it if you are successful. But, if you lose, it could be beneficial. Without a bonus you have lost your $100 and you're done. But with a bonus, even if it is an "sticky" one, the $100 are still on your account, which could help you worm out of the circumstance. The probability of winning the amount you received is less than half (for this, you'll only have to bet the entire amount of the bonus in roulette). In order to maximize profits from "sticky" bonuses one needs to use the strategy "play-an-all-or-nothing game". In reality, if you are playing with little stakes, you will slowly and surely lose due to the negative math expectation in games, and bonuses will only add the pain, and will not help you gain. best 2 player games try to realize their bonuses quickly - somebody stakes the entire amount on chances, in the hope to double it (just imagine, you stake all $200 on chances, with a probability of 49% you'll win neat $200, with a probability of 51% you'll lose your $100 and $100 of the bonus, that is to say, a stake has positive math expectancy for you $200*0,49-$100*0,51=$47), some people use progressive strategies of Martingale type. It is important to determine the amount you wish to gain, such as $200, and then take the risk to win it. If you have contributed a deposit in the amount of $100, obtained "sticky" $150 and plan to enlarge the sum on your account up to $500 (that is to win $250), then a probability to achieve your aim is (100+150)/500=50%, at this the desired real value of the bonus for you is (100+150)/500*(500-150)-100=$75 (you can substitute it for your own figures, but, please, take into account that the formulas are given for games with zero math expectancy, in real games the results will be lower).

Cash back bonus:

There is a seldom encountered variant of a bonus, specifically, the return of a lost deposit. Two kinds of bonuses can be distinguished from the total refund of deposit. At this point the money is usually to be returned as an ordinary bonus. A partial return (10-25 percent) over a time period (a month or a week). The first scenario is almost the same as a "sticky bonus" which is not worth it if you win however, it is beneficial if you lose. In the second case, the "sticky bonus" calculation of math will be similar. The principle of the game is the same: we play and win as often as possible. If we do not win and lose then we are able to play again using the returned money, already decreasing the risk. A partial return on the loss for an active gambler can be considered to be an unimportant benefit of casinos in games. You'll lose $50 on average playing blackjack with a math expectancy of 0.5 percent. The payout is $10 when you make a loss of $20. This is the equivalent of an increase in math expectancy of 0.4 percent. But, the bonus can also be derived benefit, for that you will need to be playing less. You only make one, however very high stake, for example $100, with the same roulette stakes. We can win $100 in 49% of the cases however $100 is won by 51%. We have to lose $100 in 51% of cases. When we finish each month, we earn back 20 percent of our winnings from $20. As a result the effect is $100*0,49-($100-$20)*0,51=$8,2. As you see, the stake is then positive in math probability, but the its dispersion is huge, since it to be played this way rather seldom - once a week or even once a month.


I will allow myself a short remark, slight deviation from the main topic. One of the forum participants declared that tournaments weren't fair. He said, "No normal person will ever put a stake in in the final 10 minutes." This 3,5-fold exceeds the prize amount ($100) in the case of maximum loss, meaning it's impossible to lose. What is the point?"

It is logical. It's like the one that has loss of money. The stake is in the black if a stake has been won. If it has lost - we'll get a tournament prize of $100. So, the math expectancy of the above-mentioned stake amounting to $350 is: $350*0,49-($350-$100)*0,51=$44. We could lose $250 today, but we'll get $350 the next day, and over a year playing each day, we'll accumulate pretty $16,000. After completing a simple calculation, we'll see that stakes as high as $1900 are profitable for us! Of course, to play this kind of game, we'll require many thousands of dollars in our accounts and we can't accuse casinos of dishonesty or gamblers who are foolish.

Let's look back at our bonus offers, especially the best "free-load" ones, without any deposit. In recent times, we've seen an increasing number of ads promising the possibility of up to $500 completely free , with no cost and without any deposit. The pattern is the following - you really get $500 with a separate account and limited time for play (usually one hour). You will only get the amount of your win after an hour, but no over $500. You have to win the bonus back on a real account. Usually, you have played it at least 20 times on slot machines. It sounds wonderful however, what is the real cost of the bonus? The first aspect is that you have to get $500. Based on a simplified formula, we will see the odds of winning are 50% (in practice, it is definitely lower). In order to win the bonus back, you need to stake at least $10 000 on slots. The payout rates of slot machines aren't well-known. They range from 95 to 95% and fluctuate between 90-98 percent for various types. If we choose an average slot, then at the end of our wager , we'll be able to deposit $500-10 000*0,05=$ in our bank account, which is not an awful game... If we happen to choose a slot with payouts that are high, we could await $500-10 000*0,02=$300. The chance of selecting a slot with the highest payout is 50 percent. You've been influenced by the opinions of other gamblers as this probability is not more than 10-20 percent. In this instance, the generous deposit bonus of $300*0.5*0.5=$75. A lot less than $500 but still not too bad, even though we find that even with most ideal suppositions, the final amount of the bonus has decreased seven-fold.

I'm sure this trip into mathematics domain of bonus will prove of use to gamblers - if you are looking to win, you simply need to think a little and calculate.
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